“In the UK, I think we are entering a more stable phase of the epidemic, because of very high protection levels from vaccination and infection,” said Dr Anne Cori, from Imperial’s MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, who also worked in the COVID-19 Response Team. However, the situation in the rest of the world could be very different over the next year, with countries with low levels of vaccination still likely to see big epidemic waves from the virus. “The combination of vaccines, natural immunity, drugs and treatments have basically brought the infection fatality rate, which was extremely high for older people, to a much lower level - to the point where it is higher than seasonal influenza, but not a huge amount higher,” he said. Professor Samir Bhatt, who worked in Imperial’s COVID-19 Response Team as part of the School of Public Health, explained that the pandemic appeared to be entering “a period of quietness” for high-income countries that have high levels of immunity from vaccination. That experience, along with improvements in treating the disease, has led to speculation that the worst of the pandemic is behind us – a view that was broadly shared with the Imperial experts we spoke to, with a key caveat that a new variant could drastically change the situation. In recent weeks, reported cases across the UK have fallen significantly from a peak of 275,000 infections in one day in early January to around 35,000 cases at the end of February - although daily infections have begun to rise again in recent days. ![]() That changed in 2021, when waves of infection brought on by the Delta and Omicron variants peaked and subsided without major measures being introduced, as mass vaccination helped to reduce transmission and the severity of COVID-19.Īll legal COVID restrictions have now been lifted in England and Northern Ireland, and only a few remain in Scotland and Wales. We spoke to some of our researchers on the pandemic about what the future of COVID might look like in the UK.įor the first year of the pandemic, it was accepted that strict social restrictions were needed to prevent a devastating peak of hospitalisations from the virus. ![]() Now, thanks to high levels of immunity built up through vaccination and previous waves of infection, the UK appears to be entering this phase.Įxperts from Imperial College London have played a key role during the pandemic in improving our understanding of the virus, with world-leading epidemic modelling and major trials of treatments and vaccine technology. In the worst months of 2020, many people looked forward to a time where COVID-19 no longer dominates our lives. Countries plunged in and out of lockdown, mask-wearing and self-testing became regular parts of daily life, and members of the public grew used to checking daily infection numbers. ![]() Since then, the world has adjusted dramatically to the challenge. When the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as a pandemic, two years ago this month, it was clear that the new coronavirus represented a historic threat to global health and that its impact would be felt for years to come.
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